KB Securities reported on September 11 that Samsung Electronics is poised for a significant semiconductor recovery, projecting its High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market share will climb from 33% in the second quarter to approximately 40% by the fourth quarter of 2026. This shift is underpinned by a projected more-than-tripling of HBM4 revenue in the third quarter, with HBM4 expected to account for over 60% of total HBM revenue in the second half of the year. For storage and memory buyers, this signals a potential easing of supply constraints as Samsung scales production of its seventh-generation HBM4E samples and prepares its eighth-generation HBM5 roadmap.
2nm GAA yields above 70%
The catalyst for this market share gain is the stabilization of Samsung’s 2nm gate-all-around (GAA) process. Yields for this advanced node, which were below 50% at the start of the year, have recently improved to above 70%. Analysts indicate this improvement is pivotal for the foundry division’s return to profitability in the third quarter of 2026. Crucially for HBM manufacturers, the 2nm node is the target for the base die of next-generation HBM products, meaning higher yields directly reduce the cost and increase the availability of the logic components essential for HBM4 and HBM5 stacks.
Turnkey HBM, foundry, packaging
Samsung’s competitive advantage is further solidified by its integrated “turnkey” capabilities, which span HBM manufacturing, foundry services, and advanced packaging. Kim Dong-won, head of research at KB Securities, described Samsung as the only company with this full-stack solution capability. In the custom HBM market, where customer-specific specifications are critical, this integration is expected to shift pricing power toward memory manufacturers. As demand for long-term supply agreements from major U.S. and Chinese tech firms remains high, Samsung’s ability to control the entire value chain may allow it to command higher prices in the post-HBM4 era.
Supply shortage persists to 2028
The broader market context indicates a persistent supply shortage for AI memory through at least 2028. Demand for five-year long-term supply agreements from companies such as Google, Amazon, Baidu, and Alibaba continues to outpace supply. A structural constraint cited by analysts is the time required to bring new production lines to full-scale mass production, which often exceeds three years. This bottleneck creates a favorable environment for manufacturers with established integrated capabilities, while competitors like SK hynix break ground on new U.S. hubs to secure local supply for AI customers starting in 2029.
SK hynix Indiana hub and Huawei pricing
Competitive dynamics are intensifying as rivals expand their own production footprints and navigate export controls. SK hynix recently broke ground on its first U.S. AI memory production hub in Indiana, planning to supply next-generation HBM to local customers starting in the second half of 2029. Meanwhile, the HBM shortage is driving up prices for Chinese AI chip manufacturers. Reports indicate that Huawei raised the price of its Ascend 950DT accelerator by up to 50% due to the high cost of sourcing advanced HBM through gray markets, a direct consequence of the tight supply environment that Samsung is well-positioned to exploit (TechNews).